//Thanksgiving surge

Thanksgiving surge

US Influenza

+ 41 (0.2% positivity) (last week)

= 319 (0.3% positivity) (since September 27th)

UK Influenza

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/weekly-national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-published

Flu activity, remains low

Week 46 (19th November)

One influenza (influenza B) positive sample

Rhinovirus activity remains high

Flu vaccine uptake is higher in all groups except pregnant women

72.9% in 65+ year olds

37.8% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group

30.8% in pregnant women

45.0% in 2-year-olds

46.8% in 3-year-olds

United States

CDC trends

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days

Official US hospitalizations

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

Thanksgiving

A shared, indoor meal

Inter-household mixing

Ian Mackay, Virologist, University of Queensland

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/25/covid-world-reaction-us-thanksgiving/

From Australia, this looks like a mindbogglingly dangerous chapter in the out-of-control American COVID-19 story

Sadly, for some, this will be a Thanksgiving that is remembered for all the wrong reasons

Australia, mass sporting events, Sydney Opera House reopening

This time we all know where the virus is, we know how bad it can be, and we can be sure that this event will cause more sickness and some deaths

The virus will thrive among all the chances to trigger superspreading events among households and larger gatherings and parties. This is its way.

Yap Boum, Cameroonian epidemiologist

The willingness of some Americans to risk their and their family’s health to gather for a single day has left him befuddled.

From my perspective, I found it really crazy

On one hand, you see the people dying, on the other hand … you see that the vaccine is close. Why can’t you wait despite, of course … the mental challenge?

Jennifer Beam Dowd, University of Oxford, Demographic Science

America is bracing for danger this week

Here we have time to encourage safe Christmas alternatives rather than family Russian roulette

UK

Symptom trends this week, UK

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/decline-in-cases-slows

Currently 34,279 daily new symptomatic cases

Last week, 35,963

UK R value is around 1.0

England

1.0. Wales

0.9. Scotland, 0.9

Cases in the over-60s remains fairly flat in most regions

Official UK trends

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

Symptom trends this week, UK

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/decline-in-cases-slows

Currently 34,279 daily new symptomatic cases

Last week, 35,963

UK R value is around 1.0

England

1.0. Wales

0.9. Scotland, 0.9

Cases in the over-60s remains fairly flat in most regions

ONS

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

Latest six-weeks

Household survey

653,615 swab tests

7,017 positive

5,522 people

from 4,298 households

England, 15 to 21 November 2020

Prevalence, 633,000

One in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 80).

Increases in the positivity rate can only be seen in secondary school-age children

Positivity rates have decreased in adults aged 35 years and over

Wales, 15 to 21 November 2020

Prevalence,16,400

One in 185

Northern Ireland

Prevalence, 12,700

One in 145

Scotland

Prevalence has increased recent week, 45,700

One in 115