//Sunday evening Update

Sunday evening Update

UK

Cases, + 3,862 (+ 37,487)
Down 1.7%

Deaths, + 19 (+ 437) = 126,593
Down 31.7%

Hospitalised, + 343 = 4,560

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

People vaccinated up to and including 27 March 2021
First dose: 30,151,287
Second dose: 3,527,481
US

Cases, +71,593 (+ 421,233) = 30,000,000

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Deaths, 1,283 = 545,273

Vaccines

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

First dose, 91,707,729 (27.6%)

Second dose, 50,141,769 (15.1)

Brazil

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/03/27/Brazil-COVID-19-surge-new-variant/5401616866503/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-rages-in-brazil-posing-global-risk-11616845889

Population, 213 million

Deaths, + 3,000 (per day)

Andréia Cruz, emergency-ward nurse, Porto Alegre

We’re in the trenches here, fighting a war

P.1 strain, now in 20 countries

Manaus variant

Industrial hub, truck route

Most prevalent variant in Brazil

New York, found last week

Up to 2.2 times more contagious

Up to 61% more able to reinfect people

? increased mortality

Porto Alegre

P.1 at least 60%

Hospitals overwhelmed

Doctors report younger patients

Doctors report fitter patients getting sick

Deaths in Brazil (WSJ analysis)

Under 60 previous peak, 26% of deaths

Under 60s, this peak, 30% of deaths

Diego Montarroyos Simões, intensive-care doctor, Recife

We’re seeing patients who aren’t obese, who have no comorbidities, who are not old but, even so, the virus just overwhelms them

Problems

US, widespread complacency

Fully vaccinated in Brazil, 1.9%

? further P.1 mutations

William Hanage, Harvard University epidemiologist

There is a rush to declare this pandemic is over, and it’s not

I dread to think what will happen when P.1 manages to get to places that are not likely to get vaccinated for quite some time

Most daily cases per capita ever

Uruguay, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Colombia

Felipe Naveca, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation

https://portal.fiocruz.br/en

If we don’t stop the virus circulating, it won’t stop evolving

Peru

40% of infections are P.1

Current vaccines, efficacy against P.1?

Preliminary studies

Yes, but possible/probably reduced efficacy