//Good Friday update

Good Friday update

UK, the last lockdown

https://www.rsm.ac.uk/resources/rsm-live/

Unlikely to be needed again

Britain learns to treat coronavirus like flu

Prof Chris Whitty

Up to 25,000 people die in a bad flu year without anyone noticing, 2017 -2018

Every year, somewhere between 7,000 and 9,000 citizens die of flu

most of them very elderly

Accepting some Covid deaths, the price of a whole life

Royal School of Medicine webinar

Government, pull the alarm cord because of dangerous now VOC

Covid is not going to go away

You’ve got to work out what’s a rational policy to this and here I would differentiate quite a lot between a
pandemic environment and what you get with seasonal flu

So it is clear we are going to have to manage it, at some point, rather like we manage the flu.

Here is a seasonal, very dangerous disease that kills thousands of people and society has chosen a particular way round it.

Society would not tolerate lock down to prevent flu type numbers

We want to get as close as we can [to zero] but the question is how do you balance that against other priorities?

What are people prepared to put up with

Flu appears to be optional

We need to work out some balance which actually keeps it at a low level,

minimises deaths as best we can, but in a way that the population tolerates,

through medical countermeasures like vaccines

and in due course drugs,

which mean you can minimise mortality while not maximising the economic and social impacts on our fellow citizens

Lockdowns would be reimposed if cases rose? No, I don’t think so

Impossible to prevent variants from coming into the UK

We have to accept the idea that stopping variants coming to the UK is not a realistic starting point,

but you can slow it down

US

Increase in cases

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

US vaccinations

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

First dose, 100 million (30%)

Second dose, 56 million (16.9%)

Janssen, 3.5 million

US, Forecasting

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklydeaths
US Cases
Texas cases
US Deaths,

Iraq

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/4/2/iraq-battles-new-surge-in-coronavirus-cases

Poor compliance

Surge

Over half UK variant

Younger patients

Vaccines in Iraq

Early March, 50,000 from Sinopharm, 336,000 from Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine

India

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2/indias-daily-new-covid-infections-highest-in-six-months

Cases, + 81,466 = 12.3 million

Highest since October

Deaths, 469 = 163,396

Vaccines in India

65 million so far

Over 45 now allowed

Turkey

Population, 82million

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2/turkey-daily-covid-19-cases-exceed-40000-highest-level-yet

Cases, + 40,806 = 3.3 million

Deaths, + 176 = 32,713

Highest figure of the pandemic

Government eased restrictions early March

Nationwide weekend lockdowns form April 13

Communal meals, Ramadan, prohibited for second year

Curfew, 9pm to 5am

15 million doses, Sinovac since 15th Jan