This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
Our Sun gets busy this week! We have multiple solar storms in the inner heliosphere, including one that is headed towards Mars and one that is headed towards Earth! The storm headed towards Mars should arrive sometime early on May 11th and it is driving a minor radiation storm towards that planet. This means both Ingenuity Helicopter and Perseverance Rover are being bathed in a slightly elevated radiation environment that will die down after the storm hits on May 11. Let’s hope this elevated dose does not impact Ingenuity’s flight plans or mission success! As for the solar storm headed towards Earth, we have two predictions, one is that the storm will arrive by May 12 and be a glancing blow to the East, the other prediction, made after SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data became available, indicates the bulk of the solar storm will actually travel west of Earth, with only a weak flank hitting Earth early on May 13. Likely the truth is somewhere in between! This means aurora photographers should prepare for possible aurora on both the 12th and the 13th, as it is a bit difficult to know from the model runs when the storm will hit! On top of all of these solar storm launches, we have a very active flare player, region 2822 that has been firing off moderate to large flares since before it rotated into Earth view. Likely this region will continue to be flare active for a few more days, possibly even a week before it calms down. This means radio propagation will be noisy on Earth’s dayside, and GPS reception could be affected, especially near dawn and dusk. Learn the details of the solar storms headed towards Mars and Earth, say hello to active region 2822 as it fires off more flares, and come see what else our Sun has in store this week.
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For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.
Solar Imaging and Analysis:
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html
Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.
Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.